Gravitational determinants and competitiveness of traditional Peruvian agroexports (1999-2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20564548Keywords:
strategic management, gravity model, market competitiveness, agricultural exports, competitive advantagesAbstract
The objective of this article is to analyze the gravitational determinants and competitiveness of Peru’s non-traditional agricultural exports (blueberries, avocados, mangoes, and grapes) between 1999 and 2024. From a strategic management perspective, the research adopts a quantitative, explanatory, and longitudinal approach. A bilateral macroeconomic data panel was constructed and analyzed using the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) structural estimator, ensuring consistent inferences in the presence of zero trade flows and heteroscedasticity. The results of the baseline model show that the size of the destination market (GDP) significantly drives exports with an elasticity of 0.528, while physical distance exerts a severe structural friction with a penalty coefficient of -0.767. Likewise, the existence of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) constitutes the main institutional catalyst with a coefficient of 1.444, which robustly stabilizes at 0.618 when controlling for fixed effects of year and product. Conversely, a significant negative effect was identified at the level of value added (-2.915), empirically demonstrating that the sector’s competitive advantage remains anchored in fresh exports due to low industrial upgrading.
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